Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognose Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 59% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 57% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 53% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 44% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 44% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 43% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 42% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 40% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 37% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 37% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 36% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 34% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 30% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 30% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 18% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 16% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Jules Koundé: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 8% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 1% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 83% Chance für prognose: france vs. england - player props. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and England, scheduled for July 18 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: France vs. England - Player Props auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: France vs. England - Player Props" auf Prognose Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →