Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognose Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots | 54% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Guus Til: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Guus Til: 5+ shots | 51% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Guus Til: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guus Til: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guus Til: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Guus Til: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Guus Til: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guus Til: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guus Til: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guus Til: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guus Til: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Donyell Malen: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Wout Weghorst: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Guus Til: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Guus Til: 3+ goals | 27% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Guus Til: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Guus Til: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Guus Til: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Guus Til: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals | 11% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 88% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Netherlands vs. Morocco - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Netherlands and Morocco, scheduled for June 29 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Netherlands vs. Morocco - Player Props über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Prognose Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognose Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Netherlands vs. Morocco - Player Props" auf Prognose Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →