Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognose Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 23.5 | 93% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| O/U 25.5 | 89% |
| O/U 24.5 | 89% |
| O/U 27.5 | 87% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| O/U 29.5 | 85% |
| O/U 21.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| O/U 30.5 | 80% |
| O/U 31.5 | 79% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| Falcons O/U 10.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Steelers O/U 17.5 | 75% |
| O/U 33.5 | 74% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 11.5 | 71% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 69% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| O/U 34.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| O/U 35.5 | 67% |
| Spread -2.5 | 66% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| O/U 36.5 | 63% |
| O/U 37.5 | 61% |
| Falcons O/U 13.5 | 61% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| O/U 38.5 | 58% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 58% |
| Spread -3.5 | 57% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| O/U 39.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Spread -4.5 | 55% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Falcons O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 53% |
| O/U 40.5 | 52% |
| Steelers O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 52% |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Falcons O/U 26.5 | 52% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 21+ | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 51% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Falcons vs. Steelers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Falcons Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 8.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| Falcons O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Falcons O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| O/U 41.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 19-24 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 13-18 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 48% |
| Falcons O/U 27.5 | 48% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 25+ | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 7-12 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 46% |
| O/U 42.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Steelers O/U 25.5 | 44% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 44% |
| O/U 43.5 | 43% |
| Falcons O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 42% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| O/U 44.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| Falcons O/U 22.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| Spread -8.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 38% |
| Spread -9.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| Falcons O/U 20.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 35% |
| O/U 45.5 | 34% |
| Falcons O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| O/U 46.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| O/U 47.5 | 31% |
| O/U 48.5 | 31% |
| Falcons vs. Steelers | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| O/U 49.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 29% |
| Steelers O/U 28.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -13.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 27% |
| Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| Spread -14.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 1-6 | 22% |
| Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| O/U 50.5 | 22% |
| O/U 51.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| Spread -16.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| O/U 52.5 | 19% |
| O/U 53.5 | 18% |
| Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| Spread -17.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 13.5 | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 15% |
| Spread -21.5 | 15% |
| O/U 55.5 | 14% |
| O/U 57.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| O/U 56.5 | 13% |
| Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| O/U 58.5 | 12% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 61.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| O/U 59.5 | 9% |
| Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Falcons O/U 28.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Falcons vs. Steelers" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 93% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00PM ET: If Falcons wins, the market will resolve to "Falcons". If Steelers wins, the market will resolve to "Steelers". If the game is postpo…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $131K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Falcons vs. Steelers auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognose Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Falcons vs. Steelers" auf Prognose Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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