Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognose Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| Eagles O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 27.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| O/U 29.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 86% |
| O/U 31.5 | 85% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 84% |
| Eagles O/U 12.5 | 84% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 83% |
| Eagles O/U 16.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| O/U 33.5 | 80% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 79% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 79% |
| Eagles O/U 18.5 | 78% |
| O/U 35.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Eagles O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 74% |
| O/U 36.5 | 74% |
| O/U 37.5 | 71% |
| Eagles O/U 20.5 | 69% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 68% |
| O/U 38.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| Eagles O/U 21.5 | 65% |
| Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| O/U 39.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 61% |
| O/U 40.5 | 60% |
| O/U 41.5 | 59% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| Eagles O/U 23.5 | 57% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| O/U 42.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 56% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 12.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| Eagles O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| Eagles O/U 15.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 2H Moneyline | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| O/U 43.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Eagles Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Commanders vs. Eagles: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 21+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Eagles Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Eagles O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 13-18 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 25+ | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 19-24 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-12 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| O/U 44.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 1-6 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Eagles O/U 26.5 | 46% |
| O/U 45.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| O/U 46.5 | 42% |
| Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| O/U 47.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 38% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| O/U 48.5 | 37% |
| Eagles O/U 27.5 | 36% |
| Commanders O/U 22.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| O/U 49.5 | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Commanders vs. Eagles | 32% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| O/U 51.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 30% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| O/U 52.5 | 25% |
| Eagles O/U 30.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| O/U 53.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Commanders O/U 25.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 22% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 19% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 20.5 | 19% |
| Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 18% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 18% |
| O/U 55.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| O/U 56.5 | 17% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 17% |
| Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| Eagles O/U 34.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| Commanders O/U 28.5 | 15% |
| O/U 57.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| O/U 59.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 9% |
| O/U 61.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| O/U 63.5 | 7% |
| O/U 65.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| O/U 67.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 94% Chance für prognose: commanders vs. eagles. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 4:25PM ET: If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders". If Eagles wins, the market will resolve to "Eagles".…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $95K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Commanders vs. Eagles über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Prognose Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognose Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Commanders vs. Eagles" auf Prognose Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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