Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognose Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 197.5 | 93% |
| Suns O/U 102.5 | 91% |
| O/U 199.5 | 90% |
| O/U 201.5 | 88% |
| O/U 203.5 | 86% |
| Warriors O/U 94.5 | 86% |
| Suns O/U 104.5 | 83% |
| O/U 205.5 | 82% |
| O/U 207.5 | 80% |
| Warriors O/U 96.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 90.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 92.5 | 79% |
| Suns O/U 106.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 94.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 96.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 98.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 76% |
| O/U 209.5 | 76% |
| Warriors O/U 98.5 | 75% |
| Suns O/U 108.5 | 73% |
| Spread -2.5 | 72% |
| O/U 211.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 100.5 | 72% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 19.5 | 71% |
| Spread -3.5 | 69% |
| O/U 213.5 | 68% |
| Warriors O/U 100.5 | 68% |
| Suns O/U 110.5 | 68% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 65% |
| O/U 215.5 | 64% |
| Spread -5.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 102.5 | 63% |
| Warriors O/U 102.5 | 62% |
| O/U 217.5 | 61% |
| Suns O/U 112.5 | 61% |
| Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 104.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 58% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 58% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 58% |
| Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| Suns O/U 114.5 | 56% |
| O/U 219.5 | 55% |
| Warriors O/U 104.5 | 55% |
| Spread -8.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 53% |
| Warriors O/U 92.5 | 53% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| O/U 221.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 51% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Khaman Maluach: Assists O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Suns 1H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Suns 1H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Suns 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Suns 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Suns 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Suns 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Suns 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Suns 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Suns 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Warriors O/U 106.5 | 49% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 29.5 | 48% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| O/U 223.5 | 46% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 46% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 224.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 108.5 | 44% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 24.5 | 44% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 43% |
| Spread -11.5 | 42% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 39.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 42% |
| O/U 225.5 | 41% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 40% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 39% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Suns 1H O/U 59.5 | 38% |
| O/U 227.5 | 37% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -13.5 | 36% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 36% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 29.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| O/U 229.5 | 34% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Suns O/U 120.5 | 34% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5 | 33% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| Spread -15.5 | 32% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 32% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| O/U 231.5 | 30% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| Warriors O/U 112.5 | 30% |
| 1H Moneyline | 29% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 28% |
| Suns O/U 122.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| O/U 233.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 25% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | 24% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 24% |
| Suns O/U 124.5 | 24% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 24% |
| O/U 235.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 23% |
| Spread -19.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 120.5 | 22% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| O/U 237.5 | 20% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Warriors O/U 116.5 | 19% |
| Spread -21.5 | 18% |
| O/U 239.5 | 18% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Suns O/U 126.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 16% |
| Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| Spread -23.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Spread -25.5 | 12% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| Spread -27.5 | 10% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Spread -12.5 | 7% |
| Spread -29.5 | 7% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 34.5 | 7% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 7% |
| Spread -31.5 | 6% |
| Spread -33.5 | 6% |
| O/U 251.5 | 6% |
| O/U 253.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 29.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -18.5 | 2% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Spread -22.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 93% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Warriors vs. Suns. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 10:00PM ET: If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the Suns win, the market will resolve to "Suns". If the game is postpon…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $127K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Warriors vs. Suns über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Prognose Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognose Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Warriors vs. Suns" auf Prognose Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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