Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognose Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 27.5 | 93% |
| O/U 29.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 93% |
| Texans O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 30.5 | 92% |
| O/U 31.5 | 91% |
| O/U 32.5 | 91% |
| Cowboys O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| Texans O/U 12.5 | 89% |
| Cowboys O/U 12.5 | 88% |
| O/U 33.5 | 87% |
| Texans O/U 13.5 | 87% |
| O/U 34.5 | 86% |
| Cowboys O/U 13.5 | 85% |
| O/U 35.5 | 84% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| Texans O/U 16.5 | 83% |
| O/U 36.5 | 82% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 80% |
| O/U 37.5 | 78% |
| O/U 38.5 | 78% |
| Cowboys O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 76% |
| O/U 39.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 74% |
| Texans O/U 19.5 | 74% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 40.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 71% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 70% |
| O/U 41.5 | 69% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 69% |
| O/U 42.5 | 68% |
| Texans O/U 20.5 | 68% |
| Cowboys O/U 19.5 | 67% |
| Texans 1H O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| O/U 43.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| O/U 44.5 | 61% |
| Texans 1H O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| O/U 45.5 | 59% |
| Cowboys O/U 20.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 57% |
| Texans O/U 23.5 | 57% |
| O/U 46.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| O/U 47.5 | 53% |
| Texans 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 17.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Texans O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Texans O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Cowboys Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Texans Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys vs. Texans: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texans Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Texans 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| O/U 48.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Cowboys O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Cowboys O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| O/U 49.5 | 46% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 45% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| O/U 50.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 12.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| O/U 51.5 | 40% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| Texans O/U 27.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| Texans 1H O/U 16.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| O/U 52.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 37% |
| Texans 1H O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 16.5 | 36% |
| O/U 53.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| Texans 1H O/U 20.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| Texans 1H O/U 17.5 | 33% |
| O/U 54.5 | 32% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 20.5 | 32% |
| Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Cowboys O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 28% |
| Texans O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| O/U 56.5 | 27% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| O/U 57.5 | 25% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| O/U 58.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| Cowboys O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| O/U 59.5 | 20% |
| Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| O/U 60.5 | 19% |
| O/U 61.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| O/U 62.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| O/U 63.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| O/U 65.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 64.5 | 11% |
| Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| O/U 67.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 96% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Cowboys vs. Texans. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Cowboys wins, the market will resolve to "Cowboys". If Texans wins, the market will resolve to "Texans". If the game is postponed, th…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $93K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Cowboys vs. Texans auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognose Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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