Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognose Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 20.5 | 97% |
| O/U 22.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| Jaguars O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| O/U 28.5 | 89% |
| Texans O/U 12.5 | 89% |
| Texans O/U 10.5 | 84% |
| Jaguars O/U 13.5 | 84% |
| O/U 30.5 | 83% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 81% |
| O/U 32.5 | 80% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| Texans O/U 13.5 | 77% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 74% |
| Jaguars O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| O/U 34.5 | 73% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| Texans 1H O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| O/U 36.5 | 68% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Texans O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Jaguars O/U 19.5 | 64% |
| O/U 38.5 | 62% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 61% |
| Texans 2H O/U 6.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| O/U 40.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 55% |
| Jaguars O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| Texans O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Texans O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Jaguars O/U 23.5 | 45% |
| Texans 1H O/U 12.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 45% |
| Texans vs. Jaguars | 44% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 1H Moneyline | 44% |
| Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Texans 1H O/U 17.5 | 43% |
| O/U 44.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 12.5 | 42% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 17.5 | 42% |
| Texans 2H O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Texans 2H O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Texans Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 40% |
| Jaguars Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 39% |
| Texans vs. Jaguars: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Texans 1H O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| O/U 46.5 | 37% |
| Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 36% |
| Texans O/U 23.5 | 35% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| O/U 48.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 32% |
| Jaguars O/U 26.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Texans 1H O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 27% |
| Jaguars Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| O/U 50.5 | 26% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| Spread -8.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Jaguars O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| Texans O/U 26.5 | 25% |
| Texans Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| O/U 52.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| Texans O/U 27.5 | 20% |
| O/U 54.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| Jaguars O/U 30.5 | 18% |
| Texans 1H O/U 16.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 1-6 | 16% |
| O/U 56.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Texans O/U 30.5 | 14% |
| Jaguars O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Texans O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 1-6 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 58.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 7-13 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Texans 1H O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Texans 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 7-12 | 8% |
| Safety? | 8% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 14-20 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 13-18 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 21+ | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 19-24 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 25+ | 1% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: texans vs. jaguars 97%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Texans and Jaguars, scheduled for October 18 at 9:30AM ET: This market will resolve to "Texans" if Texans win the game. This market will r…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $538K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Texans vs. Jaguars auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognose Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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