Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognose Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 21.5 | 96% |
| O/U 23.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| O/U 25.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| Saints O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 27.5 | 91% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| Saints O/U 12.5 | 89% |
| Saints O/U 13.5 | 89% |
| O/U 29.5 | 88% |
| O/U 30.5 | 86% |
| Saints O/U 16.5 | 86% |
| O/U 31.5 | 85% |
| Raiders O/U 10.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| Raiders O/U 13.5 | 81% |
| O/U 33.5 | 80% |
| Raiders O/U 12.5 | 80% |
| Saints 1H O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| Saints O/U 19.5 | 77% |
| Raiders O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| O/U 35.5 | 75% |
| O/U 36.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| O/U 37.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| O/U 38.5 | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| O/U 39.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| Saints O/U 20.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| O/U 40.5 | 59% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| O/U 41.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 56% |
| O/U 42.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 54% |
| Raiders O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Saints O/U 23.5 | 52% |
| O/U 43.5 | 51% |
| Raiders vs. Saints: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Raiders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Saints Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Raiders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Saints Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Saints 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Saints 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Raiders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Saints 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Raiders O/U 20.5 | 48% |
| Saints 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| O/U 44.5 | 47% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 47% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 45% |
| O/U 45.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| O/U 46.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Saints 1H O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Raiders vs. Saints | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| O/U 47.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Saints O/U 26.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| O/U 48.5 | 36% |
| Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 35% |
| Raiders O/U 23.5 | 35% |
| O/U 49.5 | 34% |
| Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 12.5 | 32% |
| Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 31% |
| Saints O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| Spread -9.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| O/U 51.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 25% |
| O/U 52.5 | 25% |
| Saints 1H O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| O/U 53.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 17.5 | 24% |
| Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Raiders O/U 26.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Saints O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| O/U 55.5 | 20% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| O/U 54.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| O/U 56.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 16.5 | 17% |
| O/U 57.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 25+ | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 13-18 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 1-6 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 1-6 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 7-13 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| Saints 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| O/U 58.5 | 15% |
| O/U 59.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 19-24 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Raiders by 7-12 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 14-20 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Saints by 21+ | 14% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Raiders O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| Saints O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 61.5 | 12% |
| Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 12% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Saints 1H O/U 20.5 | 12% |
| Spread -19.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 62.5 | 10% |
| Raiders O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Raiders O/U 34.5 | 7% |
| Raiders 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 96% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Raiders vs. Saints. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 4:25PM ET: If Raiders wins, the market will resolve to "Raiders". If Saints wins, the market will resolve to "Saints". If the game is postponed,…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $301K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Raiders vs. Saints auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognose Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognose Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Raiders vs. Saints" auf Prognose Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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