Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognose Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 90% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 89% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 86% |
| O/U 30.5 | 85% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 82% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| O/U 34.5 | 76% |
| Jets O/U 10.5 | 76% |
| Spread -1.5 | 74% |
| Jets O/U 12.5 | 74% |
| Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 72% |
| O/U 36.5 | 71% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Jets O/U 13.5 | 67% |
| Spread -3.5 | 66% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 66% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| O/U 38.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 61% |
| Spread -4.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| O/U 40.5 | 58% |
| Spread -5.5 | 57% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Jets 1H O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| Spread -6.5 | 55% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| Jets O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| O/U 42.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Jets 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Jets 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 51% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Jets Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Jets 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Jets 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Jets 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Jets 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 49% |
| Jets vs. Patriots: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Jets Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 47% |
| Jets 1H O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 47% |
| Spread -8.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Jets 1H O/U 12.5 | 46% |
| Safety? | 46% |
| O/U 44.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 45% |
| Jets 1H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 1-6 | 45% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Spread -9.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| Jets O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Jets 1H O/U 16.5 | 43% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 43% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 43% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Jets 1H O/U 17.5 | 42% |
| Jets 1H O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Jets 1H O/U 20.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 41% |
| O/U 46.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Spread -10.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -11.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 35% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| Jets O/U 20.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 34% |
| O/U 48.5 | 33% |
| Spread -13.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 31% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| Spread -20.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 30% |
| O/U 50.5 | 29% |
| Spread -19.5 | 29% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Spread -16.5 | 28% |
| Spread -17.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| Spread -21.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Jets vs. Patriots | 25% |
| Spread -16.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Jets O/U 23.5 | 24% |
| O/U 52.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Spread -1.5 | 22% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 20% |
| Spread -19.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| O/U 56.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 13% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Jets O/U 26.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| Jets O/U 27.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Jets O/U 30.5 | 8% |
| Jets O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: jets vs. patriots 96%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Jets and Patriots, scheduled for October 18 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Jets" if Jets win the game. This market will resolv…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $129K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Prognose Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognose Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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