Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognose Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 23.5 | 92% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| O/U 25.5 | 88% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 88% |
| O/U 26.5 | 86% |
| O/U 27.5 | 84% |
| O/U 28.5 | 82% |
| O/U 29.5 | 80% |
| Buccaneers O/U 10.5 | 80% |
| Buccaneers O/U 12.5 | 79% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 78% |
| O/U 30.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Buccaneers O/U 13.5 | 73% |
| O/U 31.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 71% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 70% |
| O/U 32.5 | 69% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 69% |
| O/U 33.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| O/U 34.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 63% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| O/U 35.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 60% |
| Buccaneers O/U 16.5 | 60% |
| O/U 36.5 | 57% |
| Steelers vs. Buccaneers | 56% |
| 1H Moneyline | 56% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 55% |
| O/U 37.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 53% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| O/U 38.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Buccaneers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 49% |
| Steelers vs. Buccaneers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Buccaneers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Buccaneers O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 47% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 46% |
| Exact Margin: Buccaneers by 1-6 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 45% |
| O/U 40.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Buccaneers 1H O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| Safety? | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 42% |
| O/U 41.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 40% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Buccaneers O/U 20.5 | 40% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| O/U 42.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 38% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| O/U 43.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| O/U 45.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 31% |
| O/U 44.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| O/U 46.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| Buccaneers O/U 23.5 | 27% |
| O/U 47.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 24% |
| O/U 48.5 | 23% |
| Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| O/U 49.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| O/U 51.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| O/U 50.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 17% |
| Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| O/U 52.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 13% |
| Buccaneers O/U 26.5 | 13% |
| O/U 53.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| O/U 54.5 | 12% |
| O/U 55.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Buccaneers O/U 27.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| Buccaneers O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| O/U 57.5 | 8% |
| O/U 63.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| O/U 56.5 | 8% |
| O/U 58.5 | 8% |
| Buccaneers O/U 30.5 | 8% |
| O/U 59.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| O/U 60.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 7% |
| O/U 61.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Steelers vs. Buccaneers — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 92%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Steelers and Buccaneers, scheduled for October 18 at 1:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Steelers" if Steelers win the game. This market will resolve to "…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $147K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Steelers vs. Buccaneers über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Prognose Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognose Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognose Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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