Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognose Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 85% |
| Warriors O/U 109.5 | 83% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 82% |
| O/U 221.5 | 81% |
| Grizzlies O/U 107.5 | 77% |
| O/U 224.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 74% |
| Warriors O/U 113.5 | 72% |
| O/U 227.5 | 70% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 57.5 | 69% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 69% |
| Warriors O/U 115.5 | 67% |
| Grizzlies O/U 111.5 | 67% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 56.5 | 65% |
| O/U 230.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 64% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 62% |
| Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 59.5 | 60% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| O/U 233.5 | 57% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 57% |
| O/U 234.5 | 56% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 58.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| Warriors O/U 119.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 52% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 61.5 | 52% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| O/U 236.5 | 51% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 51% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 54.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| O/U 237.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 48% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| O/U 238.5 | 46% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Grizzlies O/U 117.5 | 46% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 60.5 | 44% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| O/U 240.5 | 42% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| Warriors O/U 123.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 1H Moneyline | 40% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 39% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 39% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 38% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 38% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 24.5 | 37% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 37% |
| O/U 243.5 | 36% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 62.5 | 36% |
| Warriors O/U 125.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 33% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 65.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| Grizzlies O/U 121.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 31% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 29% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| O/U 246.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 28% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 11.5 | 27% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 27% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 64.5 | 27% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 27% |
| Spread -12.5 | 26% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Warriors O/U 129.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 23% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 19% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 19% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 16% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -18.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 12% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 14.5 | 6% |
Markt-Kontext
Grizzlies vs. Warriors. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 39% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-24T02:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $518K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Prognose Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognose Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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