Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognose Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 209.5 | 78% |
| O/U 212.5 | 73% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 71% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 14.5 | 69% |
| O/U 215.5 | 67% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 5.5 | 62% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 9.5 | 61% |
| O/U 218.5 | 60% |
| O/U 220.5 | 56% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| O/U 221.5 | 54% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 222.5 | 52% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 223.5 | 49% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 224.5 | 47% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | 45% |
| O/U 225.5 | 45% |
| O/U 226.5 | 44% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| O/U 228.5 | 38% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 38% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 35% |
| O/U 231.5 | 34% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 | 34% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 25.5 | 33% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5 | 33% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 33% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 11.5 | 32% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 19.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 31% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 | 29% |
| O/U 234.5 | 28% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 29.5 | 27% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 25% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 25% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 39.5 | 24% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 24% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 11.5 | 23% |
| O/U 237.5 | 22% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 19% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Spread -11.5 | 16% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 39.5 | 13% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Knicks vs. Celtics" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 78% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Knicks win, the market will resolve to "Knicks". If the Celtics win, the market will resolve to "Celtics". If the game is postpo…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $80K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Knicks vs. Celtics auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognose Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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