Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognose Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 223.5 | 74% |
| 1H Moneyline | 71% |
| O/U 226.5 | 69% |
| Race to 10 | 69% |
| Race to 30 | 69% |
| Race to 20 | 66% |
| O/U 229.5 | 62% |
| O/U 232.5 | 56% |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| O/U 234.5 | 51% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Paolo Banchero: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 235.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Rudy Gobert: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: Assists O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Rudy Gobert: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5 | 47% |
| O/U 236.5 | 47% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| O/U 237.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 43% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| O/U 239.5 | 42% |
| O/U 238.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Paolo Banchero: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 24.5 | 40% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 240.5 | 39% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 38% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| O/U 242.5 | 36% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 24.5 | 34% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 32% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| O/U 245.5 | 31% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 22.5 | 31% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5 | 31% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 5.5 | 31% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 34.5 | 31% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 28% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 39.5 | 27% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| O/U 248.5 | 26% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 29.5 | 25% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 15.5 | 24% |
| Paolo Banchero: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 23% |
| Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 22% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| O/U 251.5 | 21% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 44.5 | 21% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Spread -12.5 | 20% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 24.5 | 20% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 34.5 | 18% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Spread -12.5 | 15% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 15% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 15% |
| Spread -15.5 | 14% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 14% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Magic" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 74% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic". If the game i…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $105K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Prognose Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognose Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Magic" auf Prognose Wetten handeln
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