Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognose Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 92% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 82% |
| O/U 26.5 | 81% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 81% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 73% |
| Jets O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| O/U 28.5 | 70% |
| Packers vs. Jets | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 67% |
| O/U 24.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 62% |
| O/U 30.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 60% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 58% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| O/U 32.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Jets 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Jets 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jets Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Packers vs. Jets: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jets Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| O/U 34.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Jets 1H O/U 6.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 45% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| O/U 36.5 | 42% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| Jets O/U 20.5 | 35% |
| O/U 38.5 | 33% |
| Spread -9.5 | 32% |
| O/U 39.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| O/U 40.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Jets 1H O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 25% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| O/U 41.5 | 24% |
| O/U 42.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| O/U 52.5 | 22% |
| Spread -13.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| O/U 43.5 | 21% |
| Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| O/U 44.5 | 18% |
| Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -5.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| O/U 45.5 | 15% |
| Spread -16.5 | 15% |
| Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 15% |
| Jets 1H O/U 16.5 | 15% |
| Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 46.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 48.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| Jets 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 10% |
| Jets 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| O/U 50.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| O/U 54.5 | 4% |
| O/U 56.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| O/U 60.5 | 2% |
| O/U 62.5 | 2% |
| Spread -17.5 | 2% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Spread -21.5 | 2% |
| O/U 64.5 | 2% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: packers vs. jets 92%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00PM ET: If Packers wins, the market will resolve to "Packers". If Jets wins, the market will resolve to "Jets". If the ga…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $4.5M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognose Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Packers vs. Jets" auf Prognose Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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