Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognose Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Jaguars O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Jaguars O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 100% |
| 1H Moneyline | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 100% |
| O/U 28.5 | 97% |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals | 78% |
| Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| O/U 34.5 | 72% |
| O/U 32.5 | 65% |
| Spread -2.5 | 64% |
| Bengals O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 61% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 60% |
| Spread -3.5 | 57% |
| Spread -4.5 | 57% |
| O/U 36.5 | 56% |
| O/U 38.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| O/U 24.5 | 53% |
| Jaguars O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bengals O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bengals O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bengals O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bengals O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bengals O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Bengals O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Bengals O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bengals 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bengals by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bengals Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bengals Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 40% |
| O/U 60.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Bengals O/U 20.5 | 39% |
| O/U 40.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| Bengals O/U 30.5 | 32% |
| Bengals O/U 26.5 | 31% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| O/U 42.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| O/U 46.5 | 17% |
| O/U 47.5 | 14% |
| Spread -1.5 | 13% |
| O/U 48.5 | 13% |
| Spread -2.5 | 11% |
| Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| O/U 50.5 | 10% |
| O/U 49.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| O/U 51.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -4.5 | 6% |
| O/U 52.5 | 6% |
| Spread -5.5 | 5% |
| Spread -6.5 | 4% |
| O/U 62.5 | 4% |
| O/U 70.5 | 4% |
| Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| O/U 58.5 | 3% |
| Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| O/U 64.5 | 1% |
| Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| Spread -14.5 | 1% |
| Spread -16.5 | 1% |
| Spread -17.5 | 1% |
| Spread -20.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Bengals 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Jaguars vs. Bengals — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 100%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Jaguars wins, the market will resolve to "Jaguars". If Bengals wins, the market will resolve to "Bengals". If the game is postponed, …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $4.2M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Prognose Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognose Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognose Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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